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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -4.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |